Weekly Market Review Oct 22-Oct 26 (Iron Ore; Crude Oil; PTA)

Iron Ore: The restriction policy was not strictly implemented as predicted within this week and the capacity utilization rate of Mysteel furnace blast went down a little bit and reached at a level basically the same as last year. The demand for iron ore remained stable and the steel maintained a good price elasticity of demand and the price of the spot good remained firm and crude steel kept a high profit margin. With the easing of implementation of restriction policy for iron ore production, the steel mill had strong incentive to operate and iron ore was transported away from port in a record faster speed. Inventory of PB fines saw a slight increase, however, since the tradable resources are relatively centralized, the price continued to go upward and so was the price of Jimblebar fines and the price of iron ore futures also went up. The inventory in ports went down slightly and more Australian fines continue to be transported to ports and the inventory finally stopped decreasing yet the inventory of Brazilian ores went down. Recently, the price of Brazilian ores saw a sharp increase at Eastern China port and this may be caused by the soared up price of Australian ores. In the coming week, with the approaching of heating season and China International Import Expo, more furnace blasts would be under maintenance and the demand for iron ore would decline compared to last month and fewer iron ore would be transported away from port after steel mills have filled up their inventory. The shipment of Australian ores kept stable and inventory at ports is estimated to increase again. There’s no much room for the upward of the price of mainstream Australian fines and the price of iron ore futures will fluctuate at a high level before the restriction policy of iron ore production is implemented in more places across China.

Crude Oil: This week saw the weakening of crude oil in foreign Exchanges. The plummet of global stock market drove people to seek risk aversion and the oil market was under pressure. Saudi Arabia promised to increase its output to 12 million barrels per day which eased the worries from outside on the shortage supply of oil from Iran. Since the plummet of oil price not long ago, oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia increased the output with prudence to soothe the volatility in the oil market. Statistics released by EIA has shown that the oil inventory increased by 6.34 million barrels this week, a record increase over the past five weeks in a row. Overall, OPEC would continue to adjust its oil output according to the oil price. The increase of US crude oil inventory put pressure on oil price. The oil price slowed its speed to fall yet it is still likely to go weak later. Therefore, it is suggested for investors to wait and see.

PTA: Saudi Arabia was willing to increase the output of crude oil. The price of crude oil plummeted this week. Many sets of equipment were under maintenance this week and the operating rate of PTA was adjusted to 72.54%. Since more sets of equipment were to be sent for maintenance and prepared to resume operation next week, the supply of PTA remained tight. In terms of demand, the polyester plants which stopped operating earlier began to resume operation and the current polyester load was 87.13%. Overall, many sets of equipment were under maintenance in October and the polyester plants which stopped operating earlier began to resume operation. The supply and demand were in balance in general but the cost of PTA remained weak. Fewer sets of equipment would be sent for maintenance in November which would increase the pressure on the supply side. It is estimated that the price would fluctuate and is likely to go weak in the coming short period of time.

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